Home Breaking News Canada election results live: Polls, analysis, reaction and all the latest updates

Canada election results live: Polls, analysis, reaction and all the latest updates

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LiveUpdated

Tuesday 22 October 2019 01:55

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces being forced from power as the country votes in parliamentary elections.

Polls are beginning to close across the nation after a fractious 40-day campaign, with results coming in later tonight.

It is expected to be a close result, with Mr Trudeau’s Liberal Party potentially losing to the rival Conservatives, according to an Ipsos poll. Even if they win, the party may fail to keep hold of their majority and have to rely on a coalition to form a government.


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NDP have won their first seat in Atlantic Canada. According to these early polls Jagmeet Singh’s party have taken their first riding, St John’s East. This is a seat the party was not expected to lost to Liberals in 2015, and was party of Trudeau’s red wave.



British Columbia – a key region in this election – is the last region to close voting, expected to happen at about 10pm EST.



Liberal Seamus O’Regan is the first minister to be re-elected according to polls, with 50% of the vote in his Newfoundland and Labrador riding. He has been serving as Minister of Indigenous Services.



Like the election itself, voters don’t seem to be very undecided, including what hashtag to use on Twitter…

 



According to polls so far Liberals are in the lead in Eastern Canada, but Conservatives are performing much better than they did in 2015. In Atlantic Canada, the polls reporting so far are putting Liberals at 16 and Conservatives at 7. That plays out as a -10 loss for Liberals, according to Global News, which would alone be enough for Trudeau to lose his majority. 

 

As I’m sure we’ll be saying a lot tonight, it’s still very early with lots more polls to come in.



Initial polling data is putting Newfoundland at nearly all red. However interestingly the popular vote is showing a big difference from 2015. Liberals had 65% of the popular vote in 2015, with Conservatives only at 10%. However data so far shows the parties at 51% and 34% respectively.



The first elected MP is Liberal Yvonne Jones in Newfoundland. This isn’t a surprising result from the small-population riding; Newfoundland has gone Liberal 45 of the last 47 years.



Just a reminder that these six Liberal electoral districts are preliminary results based on the data provided by the returning officers.



Polls are starting to trickle in, with Liberals in Newfoundland leading with six ridings.



When Justin Trudeau was elected in 2015, few were in doubt that the young prime minister would win a second term. But over the last four years the Liberal leader has been hit with numerous scandals, from the SNC-Lavalin affair to his blackface controversy. 

 

If Trudeau fails to win a majority (170 seats), or form a minority government, this would be the first time in 84 years that a first-term Canadian prime minister with a parliamentary majority lost a bid for re-election.



Polls throughout Newfoundland have just closed, with the rest of Atlantic Canada closing in the next 30 minutes.



The first sets of polls are due to close within the hour in Atlantic Canada. Voting hours are staggered across the country. You can see when they close here. 



Elections Canada has received reports of misleading robocalls telling voters the election is actually taking place on Tuesday, according to CBC.

 

“We have received reports about some electors receiving robocalls indicating that Election Day is on a date other than today. We have no indication these calls are widespread”, said spokesperson Nathalie de Montigny, confirming the body had been told about calls taking place in Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

 

She added that it was illegal to “wilfully misdirect electors in order to prevent them from voting.”

 

 



With 170 ridings needed to win a majority government, let’s take a look at where the parties stand at dissolution:

 

177 Liberal seats 

95 Conservative seats

39 New Democratic Party 

10 Bloc Quebecois seats

2 Green seats

1 People’s Party of Canada seats 

8 Independent MPs
 



With the first results just an hour or so away, Justin Trudeau has shared a promotional video encouraging voters to put their cross next to his name: 

 



Here’s a reminder of the candidates:

 

Justin Trudeau – The Liberal Party

Andrew Scheer – The Conservatives

Jagmeet Singh – New Democratic Party

Elizabeth May – Green Party

Maxime Bernier – People’s Party of Canada

Yves-François Blanchet – The Bloc Québécois



Voting results are expected to come in first from Atlantic Canada at approximately 6pmEST (11pm in the UK), but more indicative results likely won’t emerge until after polls close in Ontario and Quebec at around 9.30 pmEST.

 

Final polls will close at 10pmEST in British Columbia.



And here’s Conservative leader Andrew Scheer out canvassing on election day in Regina, Saskatchewan, where he is an MP.

 

Credit: Geoff Robins / AFP

 



Here’s New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh with a supporter at the NDP election office in Burnaby, British Columbia. Currently Singh is polling in third position.

 

Credit: Reuters / Lindsey Wasson

 



Canadian pollster Nik Nanos has called this election “a coin toss” between Liberals and Conservatives. 

 

According to his research, a sample survey on Sunday found support for the Conservatives at 32.5% and Liberals at 31.7%. “Popular support remains a coin toss between the Conservatives and the Liberals,” Nanos said in a news release. “Now it’s about the ground game and delivering votes.” 

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